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Ray Dalio’s investing tactics have always been a closely kept secret, even inside Bridgewater Associates. Several years ago, some of Wall Street’s biggest names set out to discover his edge.
Ray Dalio’s investing tactics have always been a closely kept secret, even inside Bridgewater Associates. Several years ago, some of Wall Street’s biggest names set out to discover his edge.
Since founding Bridgewater in his Manhattan apartment in 1975, Ray Dalio has been said to have developed prodigious skill at spotting, and making money from, big-picture global economic or political changes.Credit...Xinhua News Agency, via Getty Images
Since founding Bridgewater in his Manhattan apartment in 1975, Ray Dalio has been said to have developed prodigious skill at spotting, and making money from, big-picture global economic or political changes.Credit...Xinhua News Agency, via Getty Images
Rob Copeland is a finance reporter for The Times. He is the author of “The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unraveling of a Wall Street Legend,” from which this article is adapted.
Published Nov. 1, 2023Updated Nov. 2, 2023
For years, the whispered questions have passed from one Wall Street trading floor to the next.
For years, the whispered questions have passed from one Wall Street trading floor to the next.
@ -70,10 +61,6 @@ The book from which this excerpt is drawn is based on hundreds of interviews wit
## The Freelance Investigators
## The Freelance Investigators
Image
Bill Ackman was among the Wall Streeters who had questions about how Bridgewater made its money.Credit...NBCUniversal, via Getty Images
Three men, each with a vastly different background, took three different passes at the mystery of how Bridgewater picked its positions.
Three men, each with a vastly different background, took three different passes at the mystery of how Bridgewater picked its positions.
In early 2015, Bill Ackman, the endlessly opinionated hedge fund manager, took the first whack. The billionaire founder of Pershing Square Capital had long found Mr. Dalio’s public pronouncements about his quantitative investment style to be generic and even nonsensical. At a charity event in February that year, Mr. Ackman grilled Mr. Dalio during an onstage interview about how Bridgewater handled the assets it managed.
In early 2015, Bill Ackman, the endlessly opinionated hedge fund manager, took the first whack. The billionaire founder of Pershing Square Capital had long found Mr. Dalio’s public pronouncements about his quantitative investment style to be generic and even nonsensical. At a charity event in February that year, Mr. Ackman grilled Mr. Dalio during an onstage interview about how Bridgewater handled the assets it managed.
@ -100,10 +87,6 @@ At 8:30 p.m. the day the report was published, Mr. Grant settled in on the couch
“I’m not sure if you’ve seen the current issue of Grant’s,” Mr. Dalio said, according to Mr. Grant. Mr. Dalio’s message went on for nearly a half-hour detailing his complaints about the piece.
“I’m not sure if you’ve seen the current issue of Grant’s,” Mr. Dalio said, according to Mr. Grant. Mr. Dalio’s message went on for nearly a half-hour detailing his complaints about the piece.
Image
Jim Grant devoted an entire newsletter to investigating Bridgewater.Credit...Bebeto Matthews/Associated Press
Mr. Grant spent the next week on and off calls with various Bridgewater executives. He realized that he had gotten some crucial bits wrong regarding the fund’s regulatory filings and auditing relationship. Mr. Grant called into the television network CNBC to apologize, though overall, Mr. Grant said, he remained befuddled “about how it actually does business.”
Mr. Grant spent the next week on and off calls with various Bridgewater executives. He realized that he had gotten some crucial bits wrong regarding the fund’s regulatory filings and auditing relationship. Mr. Grant called into the television network CNBC to apologize, though overall, Mr. Grant said, he remained befuddled “about how it actually does business.”
This all piqued the interest of a Boston financial investigator, Harry Markopolos, who had been a no-name analyst in the late 1990s when his boss asked him to reproduce a rival’s trading strategy that seemed to pay off handsomely. Mr. Markopolos couldn’t, but he figured out enough that he began chatting with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Six years later, when his warnings about Bernie Madoff proved right, Mr. Markopolos earned national fame.
This all piqued the interest of a Boston financial investigator, Harry Markopolos, who had been a no-name analyst in the late 1990s when his boss asked him to reproduce a rival’s trading strategy that seemed to pay off handsomely. Mr. Markopolos couldn’t, but he figured out enough that he began chatting with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Six years later, when his warnings about Bernie Madoff proved right, Mr. Markopolos earned national fame.
@ -136,10 +119,6 @@ Satisfied, the S.E.C. stopped responding to requests from Mr. Markopolos and his
As it turned out, by the time the S.E.C. received Mr. Markopolos’s submission, the regulators had already looked into Bridgewater. In the wake of the Madoff fraud, and never having really dug into the world’s biggest hedge fund, S.E.C. staff spent a stretch in Westport, deeply studying the firm’s operations. The S.E.C. did not much bother with how Bridgewater made money, just that it did indeed invest its clients’ accounts.
As it turned out, by the time the S.E.C. received Mr. Markopolos’s submission, the regulators had already looked into Bridgewater. In the wake of the Madoff fraud, and never having really dug into the world’s biggest hedge fund, S.E.C. staff spent a stretch in Westport, deeply studying the firm’s operations. The S.E.C. did not much bother with how Bridgewater made money, just that it did indeed invest its clients’ accounts.
Image
Harry Markopolos, who filed an S.E.C. whistle-blower report about Bridgewater, had earlier earned national fame when his warnings about Bernie Madoff proved correct.Credit...Desiree Navarro/Wireimage, via Getty Images
In fact, remarkably few people at Bridgewater were involved day to day with how the hedge fund made money.
In fact, remarkably few people at Bridgewater were involved day to day with how the hedge fund made money.
Of Bridgewater’s roughly 2,000 employees at its peak — and hundreds more temporary contractors — fewer than 20 percent were assigned to investments or related research. (The rest worked on operations tasks, including the expansion of Mr. Dalio’s “Principles.”) And of those investment staff members, many held responsibilities no more complicated than those of the average college student. They worked on economic history research projects and produced papers that Mr. Dalio would review and edit.
Of Bridgewater’s roughly 2,000 employees at its peak — and hundreds more temporary contractors — fewer than 20 percent were assigned to investments or related research. (The rest worked on operations tasks, including the expansion of Mr. Dalio’s “Principles.”) And of those investment staff members, many held responsibilities no more complicated than those of the average college student. They worked on economic history research projects and produced papers that Mr. Dalio would review and edit.
@ -158,10 +137,6 @@ In the first version, Bridgewater’s hedge funds were a meritocracy of ideas. E
Every Friday Mr. Dalio’s assistants would deliver thick briefcases full of economic research, which a driver would whisk to Mr. Dalio’s mansion in Greenwich, Conn. The collection formed the basis for what Bridgewater called its “What’s Going On in the World” meeting, held every Monday morning. Mr. Dalio, along with Mr. Jensen and Bridgewater’s longtime co-chief investment officer Bob Prince, would sit at the front of the largest room on campus, where a river wound around a set of medieval-style buildings. Rows upon rows of staff members sat in front of them, as well as the odd visiting client invited to take in the show.
Every Friday Mr. Dalio’s assistants would deliver thick briefcases full of economic research, which a driver would whisk to Mr. Dalio’s mansion in Greenwich, Conn. The collection formed the basis for what Bridgewater called its “What’s Going On in the World” meeting, held every Monday morning. Mr. Dalio, along with Mr. Jensen and Bridgewater’s longtime co-chief investment officer Bob Prince, would sit at the front of the largest room on campus, where a river wound around a set of medieval-style buildings. Rows upon rows of staff members sat in front of them, as well as the odd visiting client invited to take in the show.
Image
Greg Jensen, one of Mr. Dalio’s longtime deputies, was a member of Bridgewater’s closely held Circle of Trust.Credit...Simon Dawson/Bloomberg
With cameras recording so those in the rest of the firm could watch later, the room would debate for hours the grand topics of the day. It was a true spectacle.
With cameras recording so those in the rest of the firm could watch later, the room would debate for hours the grand topics of the day. It was a true spectacle.
It was also almost entirely irrelevant to what Bridgewater did with its money.
It was also almost entirely irrelevant to what Bridgewater did with its money.
@ -202,10 +177,6 @@ Bridgewater’s target was information about entire nations. According to employ
Anywhere seemed fair game, even Kazakhstan.
Anywhere seemed fair game, even Kazakhstan.
Image
Kazakhstan, where Bridgewater has developed relationships with government officials, is the former Soviet Union’s second-largest oil producer.Credit...Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
The Central Asian nation was not on the first page in any Wall Street manual. Ruled by an authoritarian government, it is the globe’s largest landlocked country yet sparsely populated. In 2013, Kazakhstan began developing what was then the most expensive oil project — a giant field in the Caspian Sea — helping it grow a $77 billion sovereign wealth fund. That money would have to be invested somewhere, and Bridgewater’s client services squad put a meeting on Mr. Dalio’s calendar with Berik Otemurat, the fund’s chief, a bureaucrat who had begun his career barely 10 years earlier.
The Central Asian nation was not on the first page in any Wall Street manual. Ruled by an authoritarian government, it is the globe’s largest landlocked country yet sparsely populated. In 2013, Kazakhstan began developing what was then the most expensive oil project — a giant field in the Caspian Sea — helping it grow a $77 billion sovereign wealth fund. That money would have to be invested somewhere, and Bridgewater’s client services squad put a meeting on Mr. Dalio’s calendar with Berik Otemurat, the fund’s chief, a bureaucrat who had begun his career barely 10 years earlier.
Mr. Dalio showed interest in the delegation. “What are they doing beforehand?” he asked Bridgewater’s marketing team.
Mr. Dalio showed interest in the delegation. “What are they doing beforehand?” he asked Bridgewater’s marketing team.
@ -234,9 +205,6 @@ A spokesman for Mr. Dalio said all of his interactions with government officials
## No One Would Know
## No One Would Know
Image
Janet Yellen kept more of a distance from Mr. Dalio than her predecessor had.Credit...Kenny Holston/The New York Times
Back in America, Mr. Dalio’s influence slowly petered out. During and after his financial-crisis era fame, he’d had little trouble reaching the Federal Reserve chair, Ben Bernanke. Mr. Bernanke’s successor, Janet Yellen, however, apparently wasn’t as interested in the Bridgewater founder. Mr. Dalio would regularly rail to others at the company that Ms. Yellen wouldn’t return his calls or meet.
Back in America, Mr. Dalio’s influence slowly petered out. During and after his financial-crisis era fame, he’d had little trouble reaching the Federal Reserve chair, Ben Bernanke. Mr. Bernanke’s successor, Janet Yellen, however, apparently wasn’t as interested in the Bridgewater founder. Mr. Dalio would regularly rail to others at the company that Ms. Yellen wouldn’t return his calls or meet.
@ -246,10 +214,6 @@ The longest-term project for Mr. Dalio was in China, where he made frequent trip
Mr. Dalio hired China Investment Corporation’s former chairman to a cushy job as head of a Dalio charity in China, and he became close with Wang Qishan, who would later become China’s vice premier and widely considered the second most powerful person in the country. Mr. Dalio would occasionally tell Chinese government representatives that when they invested with Bridgewater, their fees were not merely being sent back to America. “Whatever fees you pay, I will donate back to China personally,” he said in one meeting, according to a person present.
Mr. Dalio hired China Investment Corporation’s former chairman to a cushy job as head of a Dalio charity in China, and he became close with Wang Qishan, who would later become China’s vice premier and widely considered the second most powerful person in the country. Mr. Dalio would occasionally tell Chinese government representatives that when they invested with Bridgewater, their fees were not merely being sent back to America. “Whatever fees you pay, I will donate back to China personally,” he said in one meeting, according to a person present.
Image
Mr. Dalio consistently found more success abroad, including in China.Credit...Lintao Zhang/Getty Images
In media interviews, Mr. Dalio stuck to a fixed, laudatory line about the country’s leadership. It was “very capable,” he said, over and again, sometimes repeating the phrase more than once in an interview. Those same leaders, he would also say inside Bridgewater, were quick to ask him for advice.
In media interviews, Mr. Dalio stuck to a fixed, laudatory line about the country’s leadership. It was “very capable,” he said, over and again, sometimes repeating the phrase more than once in an interview. Those same leaders, he would also say inside Bridgewater, were quick to ask him for advice.
To any reasonable observer — and even to the Chinese themselves — Mr. Dalio was the paradigm of a China booster. But there was also an advantage that could be played. He asked the Circle of Trust to help create a way for Bridgewater’s funds to place bets against Chinese assets, in an offshore way that China’s government couldn’t track. That way, when Bridgewater took the wrong side of China, no one would know.
To any reasonable observer — and even to the Chinese themselves — Mr. Dalio was the paradigm of a China booster. But there was also an advantage that could be played. He asked the Circle of Trust to help create a way for Bridgewater’s funds to place bets against Chinese assets, in an offshore way that China’s government couldn’t track. That way, when Bridgewater took the wrong side of China, no one would know.
@ -270,16 +234,11 @@ The group sat quietly, nervously waiting for the Bridgewater founder’s respons
Mr. Dalio picked up the piece of paper, crumpled it into a ball and tossed it.
Mr. Dalio picked up the piece of paper, crumpled it into a ball and tossed it.
Audio produced by Adrienne Hurst.
[Rob Copeland](https://www.nytimes.com/by/rob-copeland) is a finance reporter, writing about Wall Street and the banking industry. He is the author of "The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unraveling of a Wall Street Legend," to bepublished in November 2023. [More about Rob Copeland](https://www.nytimes.com/by/rob-copeland)
[Rob Copeland](https://www.nytimes.com/by/rob-copeland) is a finance reporter, writing about Wall Street and the banking industry. He is the author of "The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unraveling of a Wall Street Legend," to bepublished in November 2023. [More about Rob Copeland](https://www.nytimes.com/by/rob-copeland)
A version of this article appears in print on , Section BU, Page 6 of the New York edition with the headline: How the Giant Of Hedge Funds Really Makes Its Money. [Order Reprints](https://www.parsintl.com/publication/the-new-york-times/) | [Today’s Paper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper) | [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscriptions/Multiproduct/lp8HYKU.html?campaignId=48JQY)
A version of this article appears in print on , Section BU, Page 6 of the New York edition with the headline: How the Giant Of Hedge Funds Really Makes Its Money. [Order Reprints](https://www.parsintl.com/publication/the-new-york-times/) | [Today’s Paper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper) | [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscriptions/Multiproduct/lp8HYKU.html?campaignId=48JQY)
@ -56,10 +56,6 @@ The President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act of 1992 manda
Among the first visitors to the JFK Assassination Records Collection was Jefferson Morley, then a 34-year-old editor from the Washington *Post*. Morley had made a name for himself in magazines in the 1980s. He helped break the Iran-Contra scandal for *The New Republic* and wrote a much-discussed gonzo essay about the War on Drugs for which he’d spent an evening smoking crack cocaine. By that time, he’d become Washington editor of *The Nation*. He drank with Christopher Hitchens, with whom he was once deported, after a gathering with some Czech dissidents, by that country’s secret police. “He was a little out there,” a colleague at the *Post* recalled. “But you want some people like that in the newsroom.” Morley had read about the Kennedy assassination for years as a hobby, but it never occurred to him that he might report on it himself. “I never thought I had anything to add,” he told me. “Until 1992.”
Among the first visitors to the JFK Assassination Records Collection was Jefferson Morley, then a 34-year-old editor from the Washington *Post*. Morley had made a name for himself in magazines in the 1980s. He helped break the Iran-Contra scandal for *The New Republic* and wrote a much-discussed gonzo essay about the War on Drugs for which he’d spent an evening smoking crack cocaine. By that time, he’d become Washington editor of *The Nation*. He drank with Christopher Hitchens, with whom he was once deported, after a gathering with some Czech dissidents, by that country’s secret police. “He was a little out there,” a colleague at the *Post* recalled. “But you want some people like that in the newsroom.” Morley had read about the Kennedy assassination for years as a hobby, but it never occurred to him that he might report on it himself. “I never thought I had anything to add,” he told me. “Until 1992.”
Jefferson Morley has become known as one of the most sober-minded assassination researchers. He spent so much time looking at CIA documents that he adopted the same filing system. Photo: Jonno Rattman.
Jefferson Morley has become known as one of the most sober-minded assassination researchers. He spent so much time looking at CIA documents that he ad... Jefferson Morley has become known as one of the most sober-minded assassination researchers. He spent so much time looking at CIA documents that he adopted the same filing system. Photo: Jonno Rattman.
I visited Morley in Washington in September. He is now 65 and somewhat more demure than his younger self, if still combative, with a sweep of gray hair, a high brow, and a sharp nose that together lend him a vaguely avian aspect, an impression heightened by his tendency to cock his head quizzically, like an owl, and speak into the middle distance. We met at the brick rowhouse that he still shares with his second wife, with whom he is in the midst of a divorce. She will keep the house, and Morley was not yet certain where he would go, but they agreed that he could stay through “the coming JFK season,” as he put it. His small office is there, as is his personal file collection, three decades of once-classified records culled from the National Archives and stored in worn banker’s boxes, tens of thousands of photocopy sheets arranged chronologically and, in duplicate form, by subject matter. “If you use what we’ve learned since the ’90s to evaluate the government’s case,” he told me, “the government’s case disintegrates.”
I visited Morley in Washington in September. He is now 65 and somewhat more demure than his younger self, if still combative, with a sweep of gray hair, a high brow, and a sharp nose that together lend him a vaguely avian aspect, an impression heightened by his tendency to cock his head quizzically, like an owl, and speak into the middle distance. We met at the brick rowhouse that he still shares with his second wife, with whom he is in the midst of a divorce. She will keep the house, and Morley was not yet certain where he would go, but they agreed that he could stay through “the coming JFK season,” as he put it. His small office is there, as is his personal file collection, three decades of once-classified records culled from the National Archives and stored in worn banker’s boxes, tens of thousands of photocopy sheets arranged chronologically and, in duplicate form, by subject matter. “If you use what we’ve learned since the ’90s to evaluate the government’s case,” he told me, “the government’s case disintegrates.”
Morley, the author of three books on the CIA and the editor of a Substack blog of modest but impassioned following called *JFK Facts,* has made a name for himself among assassination researchers by attempting to approach Kennedy’s murder as if it were any other subject. “Journalists never report the JFK story journalistically,” he said. Early on, when Morley was still at the *Post*, editors would frequently ask, “What does this tell us about who shot JFK?” “I have no idea!” he responded. “I have to have a fucking conspiracy theory?”
Morley, the author of three books on the CIA and the editor of a Substack blog of modest but impassioned following called *JFK Facts,* has made a name for himself among assassination researchers by attempting to approach Kennedy’s murder as if it were any other subject. “Journalists never report the JFK story journalistically,” he said. Early on, when Morley was still at the *Post*, editors would frequently ask, “What does this tell us about who shot JFK?” “I have no idea!” he responded. “I have to have a fucking conspiracy theory?”
@ -170,10 +166,6 @@ In July 2003, Morley sent the CIA a request, under the Freedom of Information Ac
The 500 pages of documents that ultimately emerged from *Morley* v. *CIA* went well beyond the scope of the five fitness reports released under the JFK Act. Morley was given the Agency’s personnel photograph of Joannides — a menacingly well-kempt man of middle age, dark eyes recessed in shadow, jaw set in an ambiguous glower — as well as documents suggesting that he had spent time in New Orleans and that he had been granted access to a particularly sensitive intelligence stream in June 1963. Many of the documents were heavily redacted; the Agency also acknowledged the existence of 44 documents on Joannides from the years 1963, 1978, and 1979 that it refused to release in any form. “The CIA is saying very clearly, ‘This is top secret, please go away,’” Morley told me. “So that’s where the story is, right? I mean, they’re telling me what’s important, and I believe them.”
The 500 pages of documents that ultimately emerged from *Morley* v. *CIA* went well beyond the scope of the five fitness reports released under the JFK Act. Morley was given the Agency’s personnel photograph of Joannides — a menacingly well-kempt man of middle age, dark eyes recessed in shadow, jaw set in an ambiguous glower — as well as documents suggesting that he had spent time in New Orleans and that he had been granted access to a particularly sensitive intelligence stream in June 1963. Many of the documents were heavily redacted; the Agency also acknowledged the existence of 44 documents on Joannides from the years 1963, 1978, and 1979 that it refused to release in any form. “The CIA is saying very clearly, ‘This is top secret, please go away,’” Morley told me. “So that’s where the story is, right? I mean, they’re telling me what’s important, and I believe them.”
**From left:** A confidential file regarding George Joannides, which Morley was able to compel the CIA to release. Photo: Courtesy of Jefferson MorleyJoannides’s fitness report. Photo: NARA
**From top:** A confidential file regarding George Joannides, which Morley was able to compel the CIA to release. Photo: Courtesy of Jefferson MorleyJoann... **From top:** A confidential file regarding George Joannides, which Morley was able to compel the CIA to release. Photo: Courtesy of Jefferson MorleyJoannides’s fitness report. Photo: NARA
Until recently, if asked what happened in Dallas on November 22, 1963 — the “cosmic question,” as he once put it — Morley deflected. In his writing, he tended to address it only obliquely and declined to articulate an overarching theory, except to say the Warren Commission got it wrong. Over the years, he had made all manner of damning discoveries; what they added up to, beyond a cover-up, Morley professed not to know.
Until recently, if asked what happened in Dallas on November 22, 1963 — the “cosmic question,” as he once put it — Morley deflected. In his writing, he tended to address it only obliquely and declined to articulate an overarching theory, except to say the Warren Commission got it wrong. Over the years, he had made all manner of damning discoveries; what they added up to, beyond a cover-up, Morley professed not to know.
Increasingly, though, he has been willing to theorize. Last year, he published an article on *JFK Facts* under the headline, “Yes, There Is a JFK Smoking Gun.” “Now, after 28 years of reporting and reflection, I am ready to advance the story,” he wrote. “Jane Roman was correct. A small group of CIA officers was keenly interested in Oswald in the fall of 1963. They were running a psychological warfare operation, authorized in June 1963, that followed Oswald from New Orleans to Mexico City later that year. One of the officers supporting this operation was George Joannides.”
Increasingly, though, he has been willing to theorize. Last year, he published an article on *JFK Facts* under the headline, “Yes, There Is a JFK Smoking Gun.” “Now, after 28 years of reporting and reflection, I am ready to advance the story,” he wrote. “Jane Roman was correct. A small group of CIA officers was keenly interested in Oswald in the fall of 1963. They were running a psychological warfare operation, authorized in June 1963, that followed Oswald from New Orleans to Mexico City later that year. One of the officers supporting this operation was George Joannides.”
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